Month by month
Forecast average U.S. residential heating oil price, dollars per gallon, before tax.
| Month | Last winter (actual) | This winter (forecast) | Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Nov | $3.73 | $5.79 | ▲ 55% |
| Dec | $3.66 | $5.46 | ▲ 49% |
| Jan | $3.58 | $5.26 | ▲ 47% |
| Feb | $3.99 | $5.06 | ▲ 27% |
| Mar | $5.04 | $4.84 | ▼ 4% |
Forecast from EIA's October 2026 Short-Term Energy Outlook (Winter Fuels Outlook table). This week's actual U.S. average is $6.23, above the November forecast of $5.79.
Wholesale heating oil prices fell 20¢ in the last two weeks
New York Harbor heating oil was $4.67 a gallon on Oct 27, 2026, the latest wholesale price. Retail prices usually follow, so expect prices to ease in the coming weeks.
Since 2015, after a two-week wholesale move this size, the U.S. retail price moved the same way within three weeks 77% of the time.
What a winter of heating oil will cost
Forecast spending for a typical home that heats with heating oil, November to March, before tax.
What this means if you're buying heating oil
- The forecast expects prices to fall through the winter, from about $5.79 in November to $4.84 in March. If your tank is well stocked, there's no need to fill up early at a peak price.
- Never let your tank run low waiting for a lower price. Running out means emergency delivery charges and often a service call to restart the burner. Check your level with the oil tank chart.
- Forecasts are uncertain. They depend on world oil markets and the weather. A cold snap or supply problem can move prices more than the forecast suggests.
- Your dealer's price matters more than the national trend. Compare quotes with your state's average on the heating oil prices by state page.
Also see the propane price forecast and why heating oil prices are so high right now.
Common questions
Will heating oil prices go down this winter?
EIA's October 2026 forecast puts the winter average at $5.26 a gallon, 34% higher than last winter's $3.94, with prices expected to fall between November and March. Wholesale heating oil prices fell 20¢ in the last two weeks.
How much will it cost to heat my home with heating oil this winter?
EIA estimates a typical heating oil-heated home will spend about $2,115 from November to March, using about 402 gallons, or $2,332 if the winter is 10% colder than normal. Your own bill depends on your home, your heating system and your local price.
Where does this forecast come from?
From the U.S. Energy Information Administration's Short-Term Energy Outlook, published monthly. We update this page automatically when a new outlook is released. Prices exclude taxes.