Residential heating fuel prices follow wholesale oil and gas markets, which can swing for reasons that have nothing to do with the season. But there is also a seasonal pattern, because dealers' costs and demand rise when everyone needs fuel at once.
Which winter month is usually cheapest?
This table shows how far each month's average U.S. price sat above or below the average for that heating season (October–March), across the last 10 complete seasons of government survey data. It is our own analysis of the price history.
| Month | Heating oil vs season average | Propane vs season average |
|---|---|---|
| October | -3.4% | -5.6% |
| November | -2.2% | -3.5% |
| December | -3.1% | -1.4% |
| January | +0.2% | +1.8% |
| February | +2.3% | +4.5% |
| March | +6.0% | +4.3% |
Over these seasons heating oil was cheapest, relative to the rest of the winter, in October and most expensive in March; propane was cheapest in October and most expensive in February. Past patterns don't guarantee future prices — a supply shock can outweigh the season.
Prices are only surveyed monthly between April and September, so there isn't enough data to measure summer buying precisely — but many dealers offer their lowest pre-buy prices before the heating season starts.
Practical ways to pay less
- Compare dealers. Prices between local dealers often differ by more than a whole season's movement in the average. Check this week's state averages so you know whether a quote is high or low.
- Ask about pre-buy and capped-price plans. Many dealers offer a fixed or capped price if you commit before winter. They protect you from spikes but can cost more if prices fall.
- Order larger deliveries. Small or emergency deliveries often carry extra charges.
- Don't wait until you're nearly empty. Running out can mean an emergency delivery fee and, for oil systems, a service call to restart the burner.